03 Mar Russia vs Ukraine: Investment Implications
From our partners at J.P. Morgan
Following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, markets saw a sharp sell-off in risk assets, while safe-haven assets (i.e. Treasuries, USD and gold) outperformed. Russia-linked commodities popped with European natural gas +60% and Brent prices crossing $100/barrel. However, by the end of Thursday, markets largely reversed their course with only minimal moves to the 10Y (-1bps) and WTI (+$1).
Looking ahead, markets will be sensitive to sanctions and Russia’s counter response to them. This is a balancing act as the West wants to punish Russia, but not at the expense of other economies. It is further complicated by the fact that Russia is the 2nd largest producer of oil and natural gas and a major commodities supplier (i.e. fertilizer, wheat, aluminum). As of Friday, sanctions have involved Russian oligarchs, new Russian sovereign debt, Russia banks and Nord Stream 2. But, they have not yet involved Russia’s use of SWIFT or Russian oil and gas.
For U.S. consumers, this crisis is likely to dampen sentiment and has the potential to delay peak inflation. Despite these headwinds, Americans are coming into this at a fundamentally healthy position – consumer demand has been robust (i.e. January retail sales surprised to the upside despite Omicron concerns) and consumer balance sheets have been strong. While we might see price pressure on energy and food in the near term, they do not have the same capacity to shock as they once did. As illustrated in the chart, energy and food spending now represents much less of Americans’ overall wallet share – 12% of total spending vs. an average of 23% throughout the 60s/70s. Furthermore, America has a greater degree of energy independence and the luxury of natural resources that Europe does not, which should also soften the blow.
In terms of investment implications, remember that staying invested in a diversified, goals-aligned portfolio has paid off through countless geopolitical crises and should continue to do so. Ultimately, portfolios should benefit from quality stocks with durable profits and fixed income for portfolio ballast. We are not advocating for broad rebalancing at this time, but rather are seeking balance between value vs. growth and U.S. vs. international. Diversification will remain key as we ride out volatility.
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