Global equity markets Tag

A NARROWED PATH Extraordinary volatility continues in financial markets as investors grapple with the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and the eventual economic impact. We experienced some welcome upside volatility in both stocks and bonds recently as consumer price inflation (CPI) finally delivered a positive surprise. Read...

BUMPY PATH TO THE PEAK We have written for months about elevated volatility being a recurring issue as long as the market was uncertain about how high interest rates were going. Higher than expected inflation reports in recent months have led to increased expectations around monetary...

PREPARING FOR WINTER “Winter is Coming” was the name of the very first episode of HBO’s very popular Game of Thrones television show; and it quickly set the plot for the series: After the longest summer in history (10-plus years), preparations are being made for an...

GROWTH WEAKER BY DESIGN A negative inflation surprise for the month of August and more hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric dashed investor hopes that the end of the Fed’s rate hike campaign was in sight. Instead, interest rates have moved higher and equity markets have moved lower....

PEAK INFLATION  Equity markets have rebounded smartly since mid-June during a period of weak growth and poor sentiment, but solid earnings and what we think is a likely peak in inflation. Better-than-expected earnings reports, coming at a time of extremely poor investor sentiment (a positive contrarian...

CONFLICT  Inflation, along with the second order negative impact on growth, remain top of mind for markets. The U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print of 9.1% year-over-year (y/y) was the second consecutive negative surprise. As shown below, there is a real conflict between the current...

HOLDING THE LINE Often assumed to be a military expression, the earliest use of the term “hold the line” is actually first traced back to American football (with the “line” being the line of scrimmage). But, of course, the term is often used in a number...

RECESSION OF REPRICING?  The rate angst of March bled into equities in April, and has tipped U.S. small cap stocks, the Nasdaq Index, and select international markets like the Shanghai Composite into bear market (20% decline) territory. The most speculative parts of the markets have been...

RATE ANGST The U.S. bond market just exited its worst quarter in years, with Treasuries down 5.6%, corporate bonds down 7.4% and a broad municipal bond index down 6.2%.1 After shaking off the rise in inflation in 2021, a swing in the outlook for Federal Reserve...

THE WAR TO END ALL WARS Such was the assessment originally applied to “The Great War” that ran from 1914 to 1918 – a war so violent and so bloody the world was convinced nothing so horrific could or would ever happen again. The world was...