TWIN PEAKS? Equity markets ended 2021 on a strong note, following typical seasonal patterns. However, volatility in both interest rates and equities has picked up as of late. Realtime economic data is showing the negative effect of the Omicron variant, while persistently high inflation has pushed the Federal Reserve into a distinctly more hawkish stance....

AND THE BAND PLAYED ON The Titanic took approximately two hours and forty minutes from its initial iceberg collision to its foundering. The ship’s band — hoping to help keep passengers calm — continued to play (waltzes and ragtime numbers*) for nearly all of that time, only stopping less than thirty minutes prior to the...

TRIPWIRES Inflation remains top of mind for investors, but we don’t think the analysis goes deep enough. Objectively, the current rate of U.S. consumer price inflation (5.4% year over-year) is worryingly high. However, we think there is too much focus on the current level and not enough on the effects of high inflation. We think...

PRESSURES Stocks drifted lower over the last two months before catching a bid in early October. Rising energy prices have raised concerns about growth and inflation. There have also been pressures from the Common Prosperity initiatives being pursued in China. We have seen a rise in the U.S. 10-year yield to nearly 1.6%, mostly tied...

GRADUALLY, THEN SUDDENLY “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” So goes the line from Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises. Politicians likely share a similar sentiment as to how quickly they’ve been confronted by the debt ceiling, which must be raised to prevent a U.S. government technical default. A deal is...