WATCHING WAGES           As inflation continues to moderate, attention has shifted to a narrower aspect of the price story – non-shelter services inflation. This component represents the aspect of inflation most closely tied to wage growth, and is proving the most resistant to central bank (particularly the Federal Reserve) taming. The labor...

A MESSI YEAR Congratulations to Argentina for winning their third World Cup, putting them behind only Brazil (5), Germany (4) and Italy (4)* for most World Cup titles. Team captain – and global superstar – Lionel Messi’s only World Cup title certainly came during a messy year for financial markets. Despite healthy gains in the...

A PIVOTAL YEAR 2023 will likely be a turbulent year as inflation and monetary policy fears pivot to a weak global economy, but also to lower inflation and central bank pauses. We see some fundamental downside risk but sentiment upside. Read the full article: VIEWPOINTS JANUARY 2023.

A NARROWED PATH Extraordinary volatility continues in financial markets as investors grapple with the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and the eventual economic impact. We experienced some welcome upside volatility in both stocks and bonds recently as consumer price inflation (CPI) finally delivered a positive surprise. Read the full article: VIEWPOINTS DECEMBER 2022.

BUMPY PATH TO THE PEAK We have written for months about elevated volatility being a recurring issue as long as the market was uncertain about how high interest rates were going. Higher than expected inflation reports in recent months have led to increased expectations around monetary policy, pressuring stocks, credit and increasing the risk of...