COMPLACENCY CONCERNS The past month was marked by a broadening of equity market performance amidst a rise in interest rates. Now north of 4%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching the highs from last October – leading growth stocks to underperform. Though off the highs achieved at month end, global equity markets remained comfortably...

PARTY ON? The U.S. economy continues its post-pandemic expansion – resisting the growth-dampening intentions of restrictive monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has hiked interest rates by a cumulative 5% the past five quarters (a brisk 1% per quarter pace); in response, the labor market has added nearly five million jobs over that timeframe. Interestingly,...

GOLDILOCKS WITHOUT THE BEARS? Financial markets in the U.S. appear to be increasingly pricing in a Goldilocks scenario of both recession avoidance and inflation returning to Federal Reserve (Fed) targets – shaking free of residual bearish sentiment about weaker growth and sticky inflation. U.S. equities continued their upward march over the past month... Read the...

FROM CONCERN TO CHURN? U.S. equities performed well over the past month as the resolution of the debt ceiling and further passage of time without additional regional bank issues reduced the level of concern on display in the market, including a drop in the equity market “fear index” (VIX) to pre-pandemic levels. Market leadership continues...

REACHED THE PEAK? After a 5% move in the Fed funds rate in just over a year, it appears that we may have finally reached the peak policy rate for this cycle in the U.S. – or perhaps more accurately, a plateau in rates. Inflation continues to prove difficult to tame, with headline and core...